Criteria thresholds
Each criterion comes with a set of threshold values that scenarios have to surpass in order to be assigned a specific level of concern in regards to this criterion.
The thresholds values come in two degrees of severity: medium concern and strong concern. Different operations can be set depending on the degree of severity.
Some thresholds are defined in relation to some reference, as set by the reference data column. The reference data is defined separately. The values defined as thresholds therefore have to be multiplied with the values from the reference data before applying the criteria to scenario data.
| CRITERION | REGION | YEAR | VARIABLE | REFERENCE DATA | UNIT | LEVEL OF CONCERN | LOWER | UPPER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical population | World | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Population | range(WDI-2025, WDI-2025-extrapol25, WDI-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Historical population | All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Population | range(WDI-2025, WDI-2025-extrapol25, WDI-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Historical GDP | World | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | GDP|PPP | range(WDI-2025, WDI-2025-extrapol25, WDI-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Historical GDP | All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | GDP|PPP | range(WDI-2025, WDI-2025-extrapol25, WDI-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Historical emissions from agriculture, forestry and land-use | World | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Emissions|CO2|AFOLU | range(EDGAR-2024, FAO-2025, PRIMAP-2020-HISTCR, PRIMAP-2020-HISTTP, OSCAR-GCB-2023, Gasser-2020, GCB-2023) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical emissions from agriculture, forestry and land-use | World | 2025 | Emissions|CO2|AFOLU | range(EDGAR-2024-extrapol25, FAO-2025-extrapol25, PRIMAP-2020-HISTCR-extrapol25, PRIMAP-2020-HISTTP-extrapol25, OSCAR-GCB-2023-extrapol25, Gasser-2020-extrapol25, GCB-2023-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Historical emissions from agriculture, forestry and land-use | World, All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Emissions|CH4|AFOLU|Agriculture, Emissions|N2O|AFOLU|Agriculture | range(EDGAR-2024, FAO-2025, PRIMAP-2020-HISTCR, PRIMAP-2020-HISTTP) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical emissions from agriculture, forestry and land-use | World, All Countries | 2025 | Emissions|CH4|AFOLU|Agriculture, Emissions|N2O|AFOLU|Agriculture | range(EDGAR-2024-extrapol25, FAO-2025-extrapol25, PRIMAP-2020-HISTCR-extrapol25, PRIMAP-2020-HISTTP-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Historical emissions from energy and industrial processes | World | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes | range(CEDS-2025, CEDS-2025-extrapol25,CEDS-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Historical emissions from energy and industrial processes | All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes | range(CEDS-2025, CEDS-2025-extrapol25,CEDS-2025-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Historical crop-land yields | World, All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Yield|Cropland|Cereals | range(FAO-2025, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical crop-land yields | World, All Countries | 2025 | Yield|Cropland|Cereals | range(FAO-2025, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Historical levels of food availability | World, All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Food Availability [per capita] | range(FAO-2025, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical levels of food availability | World, All Countries | 2025 | Food Availability [per capita] | range(FAO-2025, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Historical land cover | World, All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Land Cover | range(LUH2-2020, LUH2-GCB-2025, LUH3, FAO-2025) | dimensionless | strong | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Historical land cover | World, All Countries | 2025 | Land Cover | range(LUH2-2020-extrapol25, LUH2-GCB-2025-extrapol25, LUH3-extrapol25, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical crop-land cover | World, All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020 | Land Cover|Cropland | range(LUH2-2020, LUH2-GCB-2025, LUH3, FAO-2025) | dimensionless | strong | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Historical crop-land cover | World, All Countries | 2025 | Land Cover|Cropland | range(LUH2-2020-extrapol25, LUH2-GCB-2025-extrapol25, LUH3-extrapol25, FAO-2025-extrapol25) | dimensionless | strong | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Historical fossil primary energy production | World | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas | range(IEA-EB-2024, IEA-EB-2024-extrapol25,IEA-EB-2024-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Historical fossil primary energy production | All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas | range(IEA-EB-2024, IEA-EB-2024-extrapol25,IEA-EB-2024-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Historical energy demand | World | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Final Energy | range(IEA-EB-2024, IEA-EB-2024-extrapol25,IEA-EB-2024-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Historical energy demand | All Countries | 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 | Final Energy | range(IEA-EB-2024, IEA-EB-2024-extrapol25,IEA-EB-2024-COVIDaveraged) | dimensionless | strong | 0.65 | 1.35 |
| Near-term biodiversity intactness | World | 2030 | Terrestrial Biodiversity|BII, Terrestrial Biodiversity|Biodiversity Intactness Index | %/yr | medium | -0.11 | ||
| Near-term annual gross loss of primary and secondary forest area | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Deforestation | million ha/yr | medium | 16.0 | ||
| Near-term food availability | World | 2050, 2100 | Food Availability [per capita] | kcal/cap/day | medium | 2100.0 | 5000.0 | |
| Near-term annual gross expansion of forest area planted and unplanted in total | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Forest Expansion | million ha/yr | medium | 10.0 | ||
| Near-term annual gross expansion of planted forest area | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Forest Expansion|Planted | million ha/yr | medium | 5.0 | ||
| Historical land cover | World | 2030 | Land Cover | million ha | strong | 11554.0 | 14318.0 | |
| Near-term annual gross loss of primary forest area | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Deforestation|Primary | million ha/yr | medium | 12.0 | ||
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Africa (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 15.3 | 96.39 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | China+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 201.24 | 832.12 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Europe (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 106.16 | 436.09 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | India+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 27.06 | 149.56 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Latin America (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 110.94 | 376.29 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Middle East (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 6.85 | 31.76 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | North America (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 48.84 | 187.67 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Pacific OECD (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 65.94 | 259.67 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Reforming Economies (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 37.74 | 135.95 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | Rest of Asia (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 32.88 | 189.6 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | medium | 1175.37 | 1606.66 | |
| Near-term expansion of hydropower | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | strong | 979.43 | 2117.58 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Africa (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 0.89 | 8.75 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | China+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 26.89 | 115.25 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Europe (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 50.51 | 161.01 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | India+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 3.32 | 17.25 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Latin America (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 2.43 | 9.01 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Middle East (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 3.0 | 10.09 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | North America (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 46.54 | 135.73 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Pacific OECD (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 11.88 | 38.36 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Reforming Economies (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 20.42 | 67.86 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | Rest of Asia (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 13.96 | 47.49 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 320.33 | 441.92 | |
| Near-term expansion of nuclear power | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | strong | 269.75 | 479.92 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Africa (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 0.0 | 2.24 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | China+ (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 2.01 | 12.95 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Europe (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 1.12 | 110.6 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | India+ (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 0.0 | 0.98 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Latin America (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 6.36 | 28.84 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Middle East (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 2.22 | 30.32 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | North America (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 12.12 | 283.84 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Pacific OECD (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 5.52 | 92.09 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Reforming Economies (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | Rest of Asia (R10) | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 0.0 | 20.91 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | World | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 44.02 | 152.47 | |
| Near-term expansion of carbon capture | World | 2030 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | strong | 0.0 | 457.89 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | World | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 2083.0 | 3152.0 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | World | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | strong | 1609.2 | 3895.6 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | China+ (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 518.1 | 2671.7 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | Europe (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 194.2 | 764.7 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | India+ (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 56.2 | 256.4 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 4350.2 | 8163.7 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | strong | 2683.2 | 10896.0 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | China+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 936.1 | 7874.1 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | Europe (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 280.6 | 1839.9 | |
| Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity | India+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Solar | GW | medium | 104.4 | 855.6 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | World | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 1138.0 | 1570.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | World | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | strong | 945.0 | 1862.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | Europe (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 154.0 | 505.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | China+ (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 268.0 | 1101.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | India+ (R10) | 2025 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 28.0 | 91.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 1719.0 | 2853.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | World | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | strong | 1220.0 | 3655.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | Europe (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 191.0 | 969.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | China+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 349.0 | 2117.0 | |
| Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity | India+ (R10) | 2030 | Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore | GW | medium | 33.0 | 154.0 | |
| Future long-term crop-land yield | World | 2100 | Yield|Cropland|Cereals | t DM/ha/yr | strong | 15.3 | ||
| Future long-term expansion of nuclear power | World | 2040 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 694.0 | ||
| Future long-term expansion of nuclear power | World | 2050 | Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear | GW | medium | 950.0 | ||
| Future long-term expansion of carbon capture | World | 2035 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 1300.0 | ||
| Future long-term expansion of carbon capture | World | 2040 | Carbon Capture | Mt CO2/yr | medium | 4300.0 | ||
| Future long-term expansion of DACCS | World | 2050 | Carbon Capture|Geological Storage|Direct Air Capture | Gt CO2/yr | medium | 4.89 | ||
| Sustainability concerns due to annual gross loss of primary and secondary forest area | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Deforestation | million ha/yr | medium | 0.0 | ||
| Sustainability concerns due to annual gross loss of primary forest area | World | 2030 | Forest Area Change|Deforestation|Primary | million ha/yr | medium | 0.0 | ||
| Sustainability concerns due to declining biodiversity intactness | World | 2030 | Terrestrial Biodiversity|BII, Terrestrial Biodiversity|Biodiversity Intactness Index | %/yr | medium | 0.0 | ||
| Sustainability concerns due to excessive biomass use | World | 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 | Primary Energy|Biomass | EJ/yr | strong | 100.0 | ||
| Sustainability concerns due to excessive hydropower deployment | World | 2050 | Capacity|Electricity|Hydro | GW | strong | 1500.0 |