Criteria thresholds

Each criterion comes with a set of threshold values that scenarios have to surpass in order to be assigned a specific level of concern in regards to this criterion.

The thresholds values come in three degrees of severity: medium concern, strong concern, and very strong concern. Different operations can be set depending on the degree of severity.

Some thresholds are defined in relation to some reference, as set by the reference_source column. The reference data is defined separately. The values defined as thresholds therefore have to be multiplied with the values from the reference data before applying the criteria to scenario data.

CRITERION REGION PERIOD VARIABLE REFERENCE SOURCE UNIT LOWER (VERY STRONG) LOWER (STRONG) LOWER (MEDIUM) UPPER (MEDIUM) UPPER (STRONG) UPPER (VERY STRONG)
Historical population Model Native Regions 2010, 2015, 2020 Population WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.35
Historical population World 2010, 2015, 2020 Population WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.75 0.85 1.15 1.25
Historical GDP Model Native Regions 2010, 2015 GDP|PPP WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.35
Historical GDP Model Native Regions 2020 GDP|PPP WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5
Historical GDP World 2010, 2015 GDP|PPP WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.75 0.85 1.15 1.25
Historical GDP World 2020 GDP|PPP WDI-2024 dimensionless 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4
Historical emissions Model Native Regions 2010, 2015 Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes CEDS-2024 dimensionless 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.35
Historical emissions Model Native Regions 2020 Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes CEDS-2024 dimensionless 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5
Historical emissions World 2010, 2015 Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes CEDS-2024 dimensionless 0.75 0.85 1.15 1.25
Historical emissions World 2020, 2025 Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes CEDS-2024 dimensionless 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4
Historical energy demand Model Native Regions 2010, 2015 Final Energy IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.35
Historical energy demand Model Native Regions 2020 Final Energy IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5
Historical energy demand World 2010, 2015 Final Energy IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.75 0.85 1.15 1.25
Historical energy demand World 2020 Final Energy IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4
Historical fossil primary energy production Model Native Regions 2010, 2015 Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.35
Historical fossil primary energy production Model Native Regions 2020 Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5
Historical fossil primary energy production World 2010, 2015 Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.75 0.85 1.15 1.25
Historical fossil primary energy production World 2020 Primary Energy|Coal, Primary Energy|Oil, Primary Energy|Gas IEA-EB-2023 dimensionless 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4
Near-term expansion of hydropower Africa (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 15.3 96.39
Near-term expansion of hydropower China+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 201.24 832.12
Near-term expansion of hydropower Europe (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 106.16 436.09
Near-term expansion of hydropower India+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 27.06 149.56
Near-term expansion of hydropower Latin America (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 110.94 376.29
Near-term expansion of hydropower Middle East (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 6.85 31.76
Near-term expansion of hydropower North America (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 48.84 187.67
Near-term expansion of hydropower Pacific OECD (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 65.94 259.67
Near-term expansion of hydropower Reforming Economies (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 37.74 135.95
Near-term expansion of hydropower Rest of Asia (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 32.88 189.6
Near-term expansion of hydropower World 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 979.43 1175.37 1606.66 2117.58
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Africa (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 0.89 8.75
Near-term expansion of nuclear power China+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 26.89 115.25
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Europe (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 50.51 161.01
Near-term expansion of nuclear power India+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 3.32 17.25
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Latin America (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 2.43 9.01
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Middle East (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 3.0 10.09
Near-term expansion of nuclear power North America (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 46.54 135.73
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Pacific OECD (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 11.88 38.36
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Reforming Economies (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 20.42 67.86
Near-term expansion of nuclear power Rest of Asia (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 13.96 47.49
Near-term expansion of nuclear power World 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 269.75 320.33 441.92 479.92
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Africa (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 0.0 2.24
Near-term expansion of carbon capture China+ (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 2.01 12.95
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Europe (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 1.12 110.6
Near-term expansion of carbon capture India+ (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 0.0 0.98
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Latin America (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 6.36 28.84
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Middle East (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 2.22 30.32
Near-term expansion of carbon capture North America (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 12.12 283.84
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Pacific OECD (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 5.52 92.09
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Reforming Economies (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 0.0 0.0
Near-term expansion of carbon capture Rest of Asia (R10) 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 0.0 20.91
Near-term expansion of carbon capture World 2030 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 0.0 44.02 152.47 457.89
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity World 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 1609.2 2083.0 3152.0 3895.6
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity China+ (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 518.1 2671.7
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity Europe (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 194.2 764.7
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity India+ (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 56.2 256.4
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity World 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 2683.2 4350.2 8163.7 10896.0
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity China+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 936.1 7874.1
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity Europe (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 280.6 1839.9
Near-term expansion of solar photovoltaics capacity India+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Solar GW 104.4 855.6
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity World 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 945.0 1138.0 1570.0 1862.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity Europe (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 1220.0 154.0 505.0 3655.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity China+ (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 268.0 1101.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity India+ (R10) 2025 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 28.0 91.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity World 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 1719.0 2853.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity Europe (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 191.0 969.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity China+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 349.0 2117.0
Future near-term expansion of on-shore wind capacity India+ (R10) 2030 Capacity|Electricity|Wind|Onshore GW 33.0 154.0
Future long-term expansion of nuclear power World 2040 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 694.0
Future long-term expansion of nuclear power World 2050 Capacity|Electricity|Nuclear GW 950.0
Future long-term expansion of carbon capture World 2035 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 1300.0
Future long-term expansion of carbon capture World 2040 Carbon Capture Mt CO2/yr 4300.0
Future long-term expansion of DACCS World 2050 Carbon Capture|Geological Storage|Direct Air Capture Gt CO2/yr 4.89
Sustainability concerns due to annual gross loss of primary and secondary forest area World 2030 Forest Area Change|Deforestation million ha/yr 0.0
Sustainability concerns due to annual gross loss of primary and secondary forest area World 2030 Forest Area Change|Deforestation|Primary million ha/yr 0.0
Sustainability concerns due to declining biodiversity intactness World 2030 Terrestrial Biodiversity|BII, Terrestrial Biodiversity|Biodiversity Intactness Index %/yr 0.0
Sustainability concerns due to excessive biomass use World 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Primary Energy|Biomass EJ/yr 100.0
Sustainability concerns due to excessive hydropower deployment World 2050 Capacity|Electricity|Hydro GW 1500.0