Criteria types
All criteria defined are assigned a type from the list provided below. The types are used for meta information about criteria, but are also used to define operations.
NAME | DESCRIPTION |
---|---|
Historical vetting | Historical vetting criteria check for the alignment of scenarios with historic trends. Specifically, this means that the data provided by scenarios for time periods in the past (e.g. year 2020) should closely match data reported in the real world. Misalignment of a scenario means that the scenario is or has become impossible. Misalignment can often be an outcome of outdatedness: as the world evolves, pathways that were set out by older scenarios are no longer possible. |
Near-term feasibility vetting | Near-term feasibility vetting criteria check for the alignment of scenarios with near-term trends in certain sectors. Specifically, this means that the data provided by scenarios for time periods in the near future (i.e., in the next 5–10 years) should not substantially deviate from what can be expected based on project announcements (e.g. for hydropower, nuclear power, or carbon capture and storage). While going above or below those trajectories is not strictly impossible, those developments are deemed infeasible. |
Long-term feasibility vetting | Long-term feasibility vetting criteria check for the alignment of scenarios with expected long-term growth rates of technologies. Specifically, this means that the data provided by scenarios for time periods in the long-term future (i.e., beyond 2040) should not grow much faster than what can be expected for this specific type of technology. The growth rates of those technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) are inferred from growth rates of comparable technologies in the past (e.g., solar and wind in the 2000s) or from the most ambitious growth scenarios of industry associations. Misalignment of a scenario does not mean that the scenario is outright infeasible, but that a strong technology push would be required to see unconventional growth rates beyond was can be otherwise be expected. |
Sustainability vetting | Sustainability vetting criteria check for the alignment of scenarios with sustainability targets other than climate-change mitigation. Specifically, this means that data provided by scenarios for certain technologies, activities, or practices should not go beyond what would be sustainable in those other non-climate ecosystem dimensions. The thresholds for sustainability criteria are derived from literature focussing on the respective sustainability targets. Misalignment of a scenario does not mean that the scenario is infeasible, but rather that it is indesirable from non-climate sustainability perspectives. |